Country Economic Forecasts > United States

A sub-2% economy in 2020

Despite rising geopolitical tensions, recent economic data continue to point toward steady momentum entering 2020 as trade, fiscal, and monetary policy risks have been reduced. We foresee real GDP growth cooling from 2.3% in 2019 to 1.7% in 2020. Consumer spending will be the main engine of growth while business investment and trade will remain constrained. Downside risks to our baseline forecast persist, but the skew is less pronounced. Accordingly, we have lowered our recession odds for 2020 to 25%.

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