Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Africa

Africa: Why a demographic dividend is no sure thing

A common assumption is that changes in a country’s age structure that lead to lower dependency ratios—and thus a boost in disposable incomes (the so-called demographic dividend)—can be relied on to lift GDP per capita growth rates. But as African countries head into such a demographic transition, new research challenges that notion. We find it’s not quantity but quality in increased human capital that makes the vital difference.

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