Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

Recession odds elevated but not alarming

Despite some tentatively positive news on the trade front, the ongoing and deepening industrial slump has brought back recession fears. With private sector confidence still elevated and employment growth only gradually cooling, we maintain our 2020 recession odds at 40%. We foresee GDP growth cooling from 2.9% in 2018 to 2.2% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020.

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