Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Global

Rising odds, but still no certainty, of global recession

Risks are high that world growth will undershoot our baseline forecast over the next 12 months. Global growth has already slipped by around 1ppt from its Q1 2018 peak. By comparison, seven previous slowdowns of this magnitude since the mid-1970s have occurred, with four morphing into recessions.

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