Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Global
The deepening industrial recession is threatening to spread to the rest of the economy. However, our analysis shows that our baseline forecast for a slowdown stopping short of a recession remains the right call.
By combining outputs from three statistical models, we estimate the probability of a global recession in 2020 has increased in recent quarters to around 30%.
Our estimate triangulates the output from three methods – a global recession probability model, our global growth distribution, and a simple Monte Carlo simulation. Reassuringly, they all return similar answers, although the picture could change quickly in the coming quarters.
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