Property Forecasting > Report

Retail Property 2019 – 2029

​Retail property faces arguably its greatest ever threats to investment performance. Changing consumer spending patterns away from goods traditionally purchased in shopping centres, combined with cyclical weakness in the economy, are constraining retail turnover growth. Meanwhile, the rise of online shopping is further detracting from in-store sales. These factors paint a muted outlook for centre income growth. Meanwhile, the investment market has started to shift – there are more sellers than buyers and yields have started to soften except for regional centres. Medium term forecasts of rising bond rates suggest further yield decompression to come. Investors will struggle to meet hurdle rates of return in all but large format centres.

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