Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United Kingdom

October Brexit chances rise as Johnson shows his hand

We think Boris Johnson’s provocative cabinet appointments increase the likelihood that the UK will exit the European Union by October 31. Out of the four options, we think the chances of both deal (30%) and no-deal (30%) Brexit outcomes have risen, although we continue to think an extension is marginally the more likely (35%) outcome. Revoking article 50 is a distant last (5%).

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