Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

Breaching recession thresholds on 10th year anniversary

The lingering and more pronounced yield curve inversion along with cooler domestic activity have pushed our model-driven recession probabilities above critical thresholds reached ahead each of the last seven recessions.

However, we should not blindly succumb to the prevailing recession bias. While the economy is undoubtedly cooling as fiscal stimulus dissipates and trade tensions linger, momentum remains positive, service-sector activity appears resilient, confidence is elevated and the labor market remains strong.

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