As we approach the 2019 halfway mark, we believe that solid economic fundamentals will prevent a hard landing, with GDP growing 2.4% this year. Solid job growth and resilient confidence will support consumer outlays and business investment through the year. However, with fiscal stimulus dissipating and trade tensions escalating, the risk of a more pronounced slowdown in H2 is non-negligible, especially with financial markets betting on a recession.
To read the full briefing please
If you are not a subscriber, request a free trial of our Global Macro Service by filling out the form below