Australia Macro Service > Australia Research Briefings

Contribution from tourism slowing but still positive

The tourism sector has grown robustly over the past five years, benefitting from the positive upturn in global growth momentum and the depreciation of the AUD. As international travel has become more expensive, domestic tourism has grown, while tourism exports have risen sharply, driven by visitors from China.

Looking ahead, given our forecast for a steady exchange rate in the coming years, the value of the dollar will not provide the same impetus to growth when compared to the recent past. Further, slowing income and population growth overseas will make conditions a little more challenging. We expect tourism exports to slow to around 2.5% annual growth in the near term.

The sector is also indirectly supporting the economy via capacity expansion. Investment in the sector has increased, and there is still a large pipeline of construction work to be done. These projects, along with other commercial property projects, will help offset the residential construction downturn.

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