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Global impact of Brent at $100pb

We see increased risks of significantly higher oil prices. Although Saudi Arabia will likely boost production to partially offset the impact of the US ending waivers on Iranian imports, global spare capacity is being drained. We simulate Brent rising to $100pb by the end of 2019 (corresponding to West Texas Institute (WTI) oil reaching $89pb). The level of global GDP falls 0.6% relative to our baseline by Q4 2020, with inflation on average 0.7ppt higher through 2019-20 (Chart 1).

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