Global Macro Service > Global Macro Themes And Asset Views Chartbooks

Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbook, April 2019

In our global macro chartbook for April, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. This month, we report that we now forecast world GDP to rise by 2.7% this year and 2.9% in 2020, compared to last year’s 3.2% gain. We highlight our research on why our world trade indicators are painting the weakest picture since late 2009 and how half of the eight slowdowns since 1980 have turned into recessions, but we think recent developments do not mark the beginning of the end of the current expansion. We ran simulations that suggests global GDP growth would fall by 0.4ppts in 2019/20, if a sharper downturn in China and US were to materialise. And we explain why the recent fall in longer-term bond yields in advanced economies seems excessive given our more sanguine take on the latest economic news. We also mention that we expect the direct effects of weaker US demand growth in 2019 and 2020 to be partially offset by the beneficial effects of a weaker US dollar on global trade and EM financial balance sheets. However, we mention that a renewed market sell-off and a flight to safe assets could push the dollar higher, exacerbating rather than counterbalancing US economic weakness.

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