Country Economic Forecasts > South Africa

South Africa: Growth forecast maintained at 1.3% for 2019, but a worse than expected outcome for Q1 will trigger a further downward revision

While we have maintained our forecasts for real GDP growth at 1.3% and 1.8% for 2019 and 2020, respectively, recently released secondary data on mining and manufacturing suggest that the economy may have contracted on a quarterly basis in Q1. A worse than expected outcome for Q1 will trigger a further downward revision to our GDP growth forecasts in due course. The pressure in these sectors stems predominantly from intermittent load-shedding, an ongoing labour strike in the gold mining sector and generally low confidence levels in the economy.

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