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Slowdown still more likely than global recession

The world has entered its third growth slowdown since 2010, with our new cyclical indicator suggesting the downturn is similar to that of 2016. Half of the eight slowdowns since 1980 have ended up as recessions, but we think such an outcome is unlikely this year. While some recent shocks are still working their way through the system, the negative momentum looks insufficient to tip the world into recession – that would require further major shocks or policy errors.

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