Global Macro Service > Global Macro Themes And Asset Views Chartbooks

Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbook, March 2019

In our global macro chartbook for March, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. This month, we report that we have cut our 2019 world GDP growth forecast to 2.5%, from 2.7% last month, in response to the continued weakness in global trade and signs that softness has spread to other sectors. We highlight our research that the sharp slowdown in world trade growth is far more than a China story and that Australia’s unbroken 28-year expansion is an important reminder that softer landings are feasible and may become more so with age. We developed a scorecard for key advanced economies that measures the relative likelihood of economies achieving a soft landing in the event of a substantial future global slowdown. And we explain that many frontier markets are drowning in debt. We also mention that the modest rise in 2020 GDP growth forecasts exaggerates underlying dynamics due to sharp rebounds in a few crisis-hit economies such as Turkey, Venezuela and Argentina. However, we mention that the downside risks may be larger in 2020 than in 2019, if benign financial conditions and weaker US dollar assumed in our baseline do not materialise.

To read the full briefing please
If you are not a subscriber, request a free trial of our Global Macro Service by filling out the form below