Global Macro Service > Global Macro Themes And Asset Views Chartbooks

Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbook, February 2019

In our global macro chartbook for February, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month. This month, we report that we still think global recession risks remain low, even though the manufacturing and trade-driven soft path in late-2018 has extended into this year. We highlight our research on how a China slump could cut world growth to a decade low and how an investment slowdown in China comparable to 2014/15 would create big downside risks to the oil price as global savings adjust lower. We report that the EM debt bubble may have burst. And we explain that soft economic landings are relatively rare. We also mention that while Chinese GDP growth is slowing broadly as we expected, trade is slowing more abruptly, implying bigger negative international spill-overs.

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