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Global debt risks – significant, but not a re-run of 2008

Global debt risks are significant, but in our view a re-run of the 2007-08 period is not on the cards. A lower level of household debt risks in particular makes the outlook less worrying than a decade ago. But debt-related economic problems are already visible in emerging markets. And with global corporate credit quality deteriorating, if the recent world growth slowdown intensifies, there is a danger of a credit cycle similar to that in the early 2000s with adjustment by over-indebted firms amplifying weaker world growth.

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