Global Macro Service > Global Macro Themes And Asset Views Chartbooks

Global Macro Themes and Asset Views Chartbook, January 2019

In our global macro chartbook for January, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month.

This month, we report that recent financial market moves suggest that concerns over a major slowdown in global growth are on the rise. We highlight our research on how these moves are an over-reaction to the recent soft patch of economic data and why there are growing risks that populism could trigger radical and ill-conceived interventions that could compromise central bank independence and fiscal frameworks. We report that there is scope for unemployment rates to fall further without triggering an inflationary pay surge. And we explain why the risk of a return to the mediocre global growth seen in 2016 is growing.

We also mention that further sustained weakness, particularly if associated with the US dollar strengthening (rather than weakening as assumed in our baseline), could create a vicious circle and help push global growth down to or below the recent 2.4% low of 2016. We also see limited risks of an inflation-induced policy tightening. However, the phasing out of unconventional policies could trigger unintended liquidity shocks.

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