Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Eurozone

Optimistic ECB is about to face reality

The minutes of the ECB’s December policy meeting showed the Council members’ growing concern over the growth outlook as they acknowledged that risks are moving to the downside. Even after the downward forecast revisions in December, the ECB already looks to be excessively optimistic on growth and inflation for this year. With the most recent data showing that both Germany and Italy could have been in recession in H2, and France struggling as well, the ECB could finally be forced to formally move its assessment on the balance of risks to the downside at the next policy meeting.

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