Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Global

Inflation to once again be the dog that did not bark

Concern is rising that inflation may take off in advanced economies as labour markets tighten and spare capacity diminishes. We agree it is set to rise after years of surprising to the downside. However, we remain sanguine about the risk of a sustained bout of above-target inflation that would require a notably faster pace of policy tightening than markets are pricing. Spare capacity is greater than it appears while structural factors exert a strong downward pull.

To read the full briefing please
If you are not a subscriber, request a free trial of our Global Macro Service by filling out the form below