Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United Kingdom

‘No-deal’ Brexit would knock 2% off GDP by end-2020

If the two sides fail to finalise a withdrawal agreement and the UK leaves the EU in disorderly fashion in March 2019, it would cause a significant slowdown in the UK economy. Trade would be subject to additional frictions and we would expect to see a substantial sterling depreciation. The impact could be mitigated by looser monetary and fiscal policy, but we would still expect the level of GDP at the end of 2020 to be just over 2% lower than our baseline forecast.

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