Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

Yield curve – don’t discard the term premium

The debate over the implications of a yield curve inversion has intensified amid this economic cycle characterized by a low neutral fed funds rate, low inflation, and compressed bond term premium As we have written previously, we believe an overall flatter yield curve is the “new normal”, but believe a sustained inversion of the curve can still be a recessionary signal.

To read the full briefing please
If you are not a subscriber, request a free trial of our Global Macro Service by filling out the form below