Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Iran Islamic Rep

November sanctions will tip Iran back into recession

The next round of US sanctions that will start in November – targeting Iran’s oil industry and crude exports which form the backbone of the economy and the primary source of revenue and foreign currency for the government – will cripple the economy. We expect the sanctions to tip the economy back into recession, with GDP now seen contracting by 3.7% in 2019, the worst economic performance in six years. For 2020, we see growth of 0.5%, driven by a modest recovery in private consumption and net exports.

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