Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Global
Between April and August, we revised down the level of world trade growth in 2019 by over 0.5 ppt, and we now project it to slow from 5% this year to 4% in 2019. Risks are skewed to the downside, mainly because global politics appears conducive to further tariff escalation. Our US-China trade war simulations reveal cumulative global GDP losses of 0.7%, slightly less than half of which is already in our August baseline forecast. This outweighs any potential boost to rest-of-the-world exports from trade diversion effects.
To read the full briefing please
If you are not a subscriber, request a free trial of our Global Macro Service by filling out the form below