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Impact of trade wars: past, present and future

Between April and August, we revised down the level of world trade growth in 2019 by over 0.5 ppt, and we now project it to slow from 5% this year to 4% in 2019. Risks are skewed to the downside, mainly because global politics appears conducive to further tariff escalation. Our US-China trade war simulations reveal cumulative global GDP losses of 0.7%, slightly less than half of which is already in our August baseline forecast. This outweighs any potential boost to rest-of-the-world exports from trade diversion effects.

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