Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Greece

“Go” populism: Grexit lessons for Brexit and arrivedexit

Greece’s experience with binary “stay or go” populism suggests that, even when a government has a secure majority, attempts to impose radical solutions will fail if they defy national consensus. Stay or go opinion polls are better predictors of the future than other political headlines. On this basis, neither a hard Brexit or arrivedexit looks likely.

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