Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Global
Trade wars hit aggregate global trade, but their effects are complex and there can be some winners. We use a multi-sector, multi-country trade model to build three topical sets of trade war scenarios. In a US-China tariff scenario, Mexico and Canada increase total exports slightly and other Asian exporters perform surprisingly well. In the UK-EU scenario, non-EU suppliers to the UK market gain. In a negative auto scenario winners include Japan, Mexico and Canada.
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