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Global macro themes and asset views chartbook, July 2018

Global macro themes and asset views chartbook, July 2018

In our global macro chartbook for July, we summarise our views on current global themes and asset markets, and link to our research highlights over the last month.

This month, the threat of protectionism looms greater, plus the risks from rising global oil prices remain. We highlight our extensive research on the global impact of protectionism and a stronger-for-longer dollar. We view a major escalation of trade tensions that causes a recession as unlikely. As a result, we maintain a cautious yet positive outlook on global trade and growth.

We also present our research on the problems of EM pro-cyclicality, oil-related unrest in EM and a softer impact of ECB tapering.

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