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Global financial conditions: keep calm and carry on!

Our newly created financial indicator index (FCI) for advanced economies (AEs) suggests that financial conditions have only moderately eased since the financial market weakness in February and have remained relatively tight compared to the favourable conditions seen throughout 2017.

We think that the February tightening was a one-off event, rather than the start of a sustained tightening cycle. Since the AE FCI leads GDP growth in the region as a whole by one to two quarters, it is consistent with our baseline view of an only gradual slowdown in GDP growth in H2 2018.

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