Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Global
The global trade conflict is at risk of a serious escalation. Recent tariff threats, if realised, would extend high tariffs to over 4% of world imports – a tenfold rise. This comes just as the global upturn shows signs of faltering. The threat to world growth is significant: in a scenario of escalating tariffs, our modelling suggests world GDP could be cut by up to 0.4 percentage points in 2019.
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