Australia Macro Service > Australia Research Briefings

High frequency data signals slower growth momentum

We have imperfect information about the current state of the economy, with key economic statistics released with significant delays; Australian GDP, for example, is released with much speculation and anticipation more than two months after the end of the quarter.

To counter this, researchers have developed the Nowcasting methodology, that utilises all available high frequency data to potentially improve our forecast accuracy in the short run. Our preliminary analysis finds that the realisation of the exchange rate, stock market indices, merchandise trade, retail and employment data and numerous consumer and business surveys can all potentially explain shifts in short run growth momentum, with the latest data suggesting that growth momentum in the economy has slowed to around 0.6% q/q in the June quarter (down from 1% in the previous three months).

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