Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States
As we had anticipated, the US administration upped the ante by threatening to impose 10% tariffs on $200 billion of imports from China. Combined with the announced tariffs on $50 billion of imports from China, the direct and indirect risks to the economy are significant. While real GDP growth could be reduced by 0.3ppt in 2019, the hit to the economy could potentially be larger since the tariffs would directly impact consumer goods, affect US multinationals in the US and China, weigh on stock markets, and hit the US and global economy as momentum slows.
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