Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > Eurozone

Italy-driven chaos still only a tail risk

We do not expect Italy to be in a position where the sustainability of its public finances is seriously questioned. Government debt as a share of GDP should gradually fall, even in a less benign scenario than our baseline view. Just as importantly, the global consequences of a restructuring are likely to ensure some form of outside support if default starts to look like a possibility.

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