Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > China

China’s slowdown and US tariffs come at bad time

The surprising resilience of China’s growth this year has been a very helpful buffer for the global economy amid various emerging headwinds. But yesterday’s economic data suggest that the slowdown in China – that we had been expecting (because of tighter policy) – is now coming through, thus adding to the challenges facing the world economy in the coming months. Moreover, the trade tariffs that the US is now about to impose, and the ensuing retaliation by China, will further dampen growth and sentiment globally. We do not expect China’s growth to decelerate sharply. But, this time, unlike in previous episodes, China’s macroeconomic policy will provide only limited offset to the downward pressure on Chinese and global growth.

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