Australia Macro Service > Australia Research Briefings

Policy shifts a threat to global outlook

Although recent activity indicators suggest that the synchronised global acceleration in growth started to falter in early 2018, the expansion appears to be losing momentum relatively gently; global growth is expected to remain strong in the near-term, by post-global financial crisis standards. But downside risks to the outlook have increased, particularly around US trade policy and an adverse market reaction to accelerated monetary tightening. But we also see short term upside risks, if inflation continues to undershoot and central banks keep rates on hold for longer. We assess the outlook for Australia under each of these alternatives.​

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