Global Macro Service > Data Insights > Australia

Trade surplus falls back in April

The trade surplus slipped back slightly in April, to A$977m, after recording surpluses of over $1bn in the first three months of 2018. Exports declined, weighed down by a 2% m/m fall in non-rural goods and a 16% drop in non-monetary gold exports. Meanwhile, imports were flat with a $200m fall in consumption goods being offset by rises in capital and intermediate goods.

The positive global environment and coming online of LNG capacity will support exports growth, and we expect export volumes to increase by around 5% in 2018. Revenue growth is likely to be less impressive, with coal and iron ore prices expected to fall further. In contrast, growth in import volumes is forecast to slow in line with the relatively subdued pace of domestic demand. Overall, we expect the trade balance to remain comfortably in surplus this year.

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