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Global economy robust to higher oil, but EM vulnerable

We do not envisage major central banks being pricked into deflationary action by the oil spike as there are limited concerns over a wage-price spiral. But further rises – say to $100pb – would sour the global economy’s Goldilocks period. Vulnerable EM are the biggest concern; for some the impact is relatively large and could pile pressure on already-strained domestic policies.

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