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Weak PMIs are no reason to give up on the expansion

April’s PMI data appear to provide further evidence that global GDP growth may now have passed its cyclical peak. However, for now, we do not expect the abrupt drop in the composite PMI since February to be followed by a sharp slowdown in global GDP growth. We are still forecasting global GDP growth to expand by 3.2% over 2018 as a whole, a touch better than last year’s 3.0% gain.

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