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$85pb oil simulation: impact on global economy

Higher oil prices present a risk to growth momentum and inflation. We simulate the impact of oil prices reaching $85pb in 2018 Q3 and remain there through 2020. World GDP falls 0.6% below baseline by 2020 Q3, while the peak impact on global inflation is 1.0ppt (above baseline, in 2019 Q1). By mid-2019, global bond yields would be 50bps above baseline. Oil-consuming EMs such as China and India are the most negatively affected economies.

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