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History suggests contained fallout from Trump trade war

​The risks from a Trump trade war are overstated. Our comprehensive review of historical trade conflicts confirms that their effects tend to be contained. And we find that the one exception – the high-intensity, high-impact Smoot-Hawley trade war – bears only superficial similarity to conditions today. While there are no winners in trade wars, the fall-out from President Trump’s protectionist trade measures is likely to be more limited than many assume.

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