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Trade winds still blowing strong - but risks on the horizon

​Early evidence for 2018 suggests the global upturn in trade that began last year remains in place. Our in-house export indicator points to trade growth remaining solid in the coming months, with any slowdown likely to be gradual. Some Asian trade indicators have already softened, but our China growth factor has perked up again in early 2018 after some moderation in Q4 2017 – again suggesting a resilient picture. The main risk to the outlook looks to be from the protectionist threat from the US. A China slowdown prompted by tariffs would hurt other Asian economies most, with Germany most at risk outside Asia.​

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