Global Macro Service > Latest Analysis

Global economy to withstand threats from tariffs and twins

We see a limited direct threat to global financial conditions from rising US twin deficits, which are each likely to be financed by emerging markets. Instead, the risk is political – a widening current account deficit may lead President Trump to further harden his stance on trade. For now, though, we still see only a small likelihood of a highly damaging trade war. But it seems increasingly likely that further protectionist measures may eat away at the global expansion.

To read the full briefing please
If you are not a subscriber, request a free trial of our Global Macro Service by filling out the form below