Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

Section 232 tariffs to hurt US manufacturers & kill jobs

Sectoral scenario analysis of Donald Trump’s proposed Section 232 tariffs (in which we assume no exemptions) reveals that the small benefits to domestic metal-producing industries will be drowned out by job and output losses in metal-using sectors. We think they will lead to a net loss of at least 70,000 manufacturing jobs over the next two years and a modestly slower growth rate of overall manufacturing activity. Metals production outside the Americas will likely be little affected, and Canada and Mexico will benefit from exemptions assuming they are agreed.




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