Global Macro Service > Research Briefings > United States

Recession odds stay low, but beware of rising trade tensions

Our models indicate the odds of a recession this year range from 1% to 15%, changing little since last month and remaining well below critical thresholds. Importantly though, the imposition of steel and aluminum tariffs and Gary Cohn’s resignation as Trump’s top economic adviser signal an increased risk of US trade protectionism, which could elicit international retaliation and increase the risk of an economic downturn.

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