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Trump: the global fallout

We assess the potential fall-out from a Donald Trump presidential election victory. Our scenario analysis suggests that the economic and market impact is most likely to be relatively muted. But, should Mr. Trump prove more successful in achieving adoption of his policies, the consequences could be far-reaching – knocking 5% off the level of US GDP relative to baseline and undermining the anticipated recovery in global growth.

In this, the latest in a series of US election briefings, we explore the combined weight of key Trump policy proposals, building on earlier research on individual policies.

Our central expectation is that the plans would be significantly diluted, with Mr. Trump forced to negotiate with Congress. The US economy would slow in the near-term amid increased uncertainty, with GDP easing to a level around ½% below baseline during 2017.

But the impact would be more severe if Mr. Trump were able to implement more substantively some of his stated policy proposals. In our adverse scenario, the US economy not only slows in the near term, it also remains subdued over the longer term, in part reflecting the impact of trade and immigration policies on potential supply.

The global impact also diverges markedly across the two scenarios. In the central Trump scenario, global growth edges down modestly relative to baseline – by up to a ¼ percentage point during the course of 2017. In the adverse scenario, however, the global economy is more badly shaken and growth remains subdued throughout much of the five-year forecast.

We explore the implications at a more granular level – across 80 countries and an array of macroeconomic and financial variables – in the recently published Q3 2016 Global Scenarios Service.

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