Events and Webinars

We run a worldwide programme of insightful conferences, roundtables, webinars and podcasts presented by our economic experts.

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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Inflation and BoE outlook

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | August 17, 2023

May’s downside surprise for inflation caused markets to rein in their expectations for the future path for Bank Rate. But we’re not out of the woods yet, with our recent research highlighting why the second round effects of higher energy prices are likely to prove more persistent than the initial direct and indirect impact. In this webinar we react to the August MPC meeting and assess the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

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Webinar
What can AE central banks learn from EMs?

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | July 18, 2023

Major advanced economy (AE) central banks have been criticised for the extent to which inflation has overshot target. Indeed, sticky core inflation and strong wage growth have prompted the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Canada to resume tightening after a pause, while the Bank of England has been forced to increase the rate of tightening once again. In this webinar, we explore the extent to which AEs would be in a stronger position had they followed some of their emerging market (EM) counterparts and hiked earlier.

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Webinar
Consumer Outlook – Risks & Opportunities 2023/2024

with Florent Guillarme and Graeme Harrison | Online | June 27, 2023

In 2020, Covid triggered a shock to global consumer spending like we’ve only seen in war times. However, it also created conditions for a rebound through a saving cushion for households, even more for the wealthiest. So despite unprecedented inflation from 2022, particularly rising prices for non-discretionary items like energy and food, followed by unprecedented monetary tightening & raising rates, consumer spending in nominal terms (much less so in real or volume terms) has proved surprisingly resilient globally thanks to savings, strong GDP and nominal earnings, but also resilient stock markets, labour markets and wealth underpinned by the travel recovery too, but for how long and what are the Consumer turbulences to come ahead? The webinar will explore how Consumers will react from now, to the end of monetary tightening, with GDP and inflation weakening in Europe, the US and China and the with the effect of recent developments starting to bite more. It will cover the macro context (GDP, income, savings, earnings, inflation, labour market, interest rates and credit, confidence and government policy), including macro factors more relevant to the luxury sector (e.g. wealth and asset prices) and how different socio-economic groups are affected. It will also go into a deeper dive into the consumer sector (aggregate and a breakdown of consumer spend and retail sales in volume and value terms and into different goods and services products), trends in online vs in-store spending, the recovery in tourism spending and trends in income and price elasticity.

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Webinar
Stagflation et hausse des taux, où sont les bonnes nouvelles?

with Pierre Delage and Daniela Ordonez | Online | June 20, 2023

Alors que la France et la zone euro semblent enlisées dans la stagflation, les Etats-Unis montrent des signes étonnants de résilience face à la Fed, au moins pour le moment. La Chine déconfinée, elle, se montre en apparence contra-cyclique avec de la croissance et une tendance déflationniste. Dans ce contexte, qu’attendre au S2 2023 en termes d’inflation, de politique monétaire et de croissance?

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Webinar
Global industrial outlook for 2023 remains weak

with Jeremy Leonard and Max Anderson | Online | June 14, 2023

We will present an overview and the highlights of our latest quarterly industry forecast update. Key topics include the positive developments in Europe with respect to energy prices and supply, frontloaded recovery in China after the end of zero-Covid policy and how the evolution of inflation and interest rates will keep industrial prospects weak in the near term.

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Webinar
Latin America: is the worst behind us?

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | June 13, 2023

Strong post-pandemic recovery and high commodity prices provided a surprising momentum to Latin America that extended well into 2023. However, economic cycles are decoupling. Economies like Chile and Argentina are already feeling the hangover from prior overheating, while the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, could still feel the pain of a global recession later this year or in 2024. In this webinar, we dissect growth divergence in the region and what it means for the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

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Webinar
Portugal: revisão em alta à boleia do turismo

with Florent Guillarme and Ricardo Amaro | Online | May 24, 2023

A economia Portuguesa surpreendeu pela positiva no início de 2023, com o PIB a crescer 1.6% em cadeia. Este crescimento foi impulsionado pelo excelente desempenho das exportações e deixa o PIB português bem posicionado para crescer no conjunto de 2023 acima de 2% - muito acima da nossa previsão de 0.8% para a zona euro. Ainda assim, a procura interna continuou a dar sinais de abrandamento e a Oxford Economics espera um crescimento bastante mais moderado para o resto do ano.

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Webinar
Have rising corporate profits been key to the surge in inflation?

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | May 18, 2023

In this webinar, we look at the extent to which rising profit margins, so-called “greedflation” explain the pick-up in inflation in the advanced economies over the past couple of years. We also explore whether or not the future path for margins is likely to help central banks return inflation to target swiftly.

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Webinar
EM Strategy Webinar

with Javier Corominas | Online | May 16, 2023

We will discuss investment opportunities in local rates, FX and credit in EM and frontier markets in the context of still high inflation and interest rates, and US recession risk. We will also talk about the trading implications of Turkey's election.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Have we reached the end of the rate hiking cycle?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | May 15, 2023

In February, when Bank Rate was increased to 4%, the MPC sent a clear message that it felt its job was almost done. But since then activity has been firmer than expected and fiscal policy has been loosened, while data on wages and inflation have surprised on the upside, leading markets to expect that Bank Rate will move close to 5% by year-end. In this webinar we will provide an update on the outlook for monetary policy, looking back on the May MPC meeting and presenting some of our recent work on labour market tightness and the outlook for wage growth.

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Webinar
Greater China: Exploring the plausible ‘What Ifs’ to our 2023 outlook

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | May 9, 2023

Market forecasts around China’s growth this year vary considerably, reflecting differences in assumptions around policy risk, the outlook for the property sector, and the size and longevity of the reopening consumption boost. We provide our own take on China’s growth, inflation, and currency in 2023, discuss and size various risks to our own forecasts. We will also be presenting our outlook on Hong Kong, following the Q1 GDP data.

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Webinar
Outlook Eurozona e Italia

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | April 18, 2023

Le ultime settimane hanno visto un calo dell’inflazione ma il taglio della produzione di petrolio deliberato dall’OPEC+ indica che la crisi energetica non è stata del tutto superata. Nuovi rischi per l’economia italiana e dell’Eurozona arrivano dal settore finanziario, con sullo sfondo la guerra in Ucraina che sembra lontana da una soluzione. In Italia tiene banco la questione dell’utilizzo dei fondi del PNNR , mentre i dati ad alta frequenza indicano un inizio d’anno migliore delle attese.

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Webinar
Banking sector stress increases the risk of a hard landing

with Oren Klachkin and Ryan Sweet | Online | April 12, 2023

Any hope of a soft landing has been squashed by the recent spike in banking sector stress, increasing our conviction that the US economy will suffer a mild recession. The worst of the damage will come in the second half of the year as high inflation, tight Fed policy, and tighter financial conditions drag down activity. Tune in to our quarterly outlook webinar to find out how severe the damage will be.

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Webinar
Latin America’s exposure to an asset crash scenario

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | March 30, 2023

The failure of regional banks in the US did not change our baseline forecast for asset prices, central bank policy or the real economy in Latin America. But it was a reminder that the Fed could cause accidents along the way in its fight against inflation and Latin America could become a casualty in the process. Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene will provide an update on the outlook and risks for the region with a focus on its two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Policy peril

with Jamie Thompson and Manuela Kiehl | Online | March 13, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, including the sensitivity of monetary policy and economic activity to near-term price developments. We highlight in particular the potential implications for the global economy of a stronger Chinese recovery and higher-than-expected inflation.

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Webinar
The high-stakes election in Africa’s largest democracy

with Pieter Scribante | Online | February 23, 2023

Nigerians are heading to the polls to vote for a new president, the house of representatives, and the senate on February 25, and for their state-wide representatives and governors on March 11. These elections take place under a spectre of record-high inflation, a deepening currency crisis, dissatisfaction with the political establishment, and heightened insecurity. Incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari is term-limited and set to be replaced. There are three candidates with a realistic path to victory: Bola Tinubu from the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar from the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi from the Labour Party. In this webinar, we explore three scenarios of the potential outcome of the election and discuss the associated policy implications.

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Webinar
The continued risk of monetary overkill

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 21, 2023

We assess the risk of central bank over-tightening in an uncertain environment. We consider whether the level of monetary restriction could become excessive relative to what is needed to return inflation to target and the risk that the speed of tightening could cause financial market instability, looking at current key indicators and historical evidence across a range of advanced economies.

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