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Webinar
European Construction Outlook

with Nicholas Fearnley | Online | February 22, 2024

European construction activity remained resilient over 2023 despite the headwinds created by higher financing costs, input cost inflation and labour shortages. We generally expect this resilience to continue into 2024, although the outlook varies by country and sector. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in Europe, and answer the following questions: • How does the outlook vary across sectors and countries? • How do delays to NGEU funding affect the outlook? • When will the renovation wave take off? • What is the outlook for material construction costs? • What are the risks and implications of higher interest rates and construction costs?

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Webinar
Red Sea attacks are not an inflation gamechanger

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | February 21, 2024

We see the disruption to shipping in the Red Sea as more likely than not to last at least six months, implying that the associated rise in shipping costs will linger and move up the supply chain. While we expect the impact on CPI inflation to be small, it will take time before this becomes unambiguously clear. This uncertainty could ultimately prompt central banks to delay rate cuts to give themselves more information on the inflationary impacts. However, the Red Sea attacks are only one of many factors that policymakers will factor into their considerations – we still think rate cuts will commence around mid-2024.

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Webinar
Will lower inflation mean the MPC cuts rates faster?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | February 15, 2024

The UK inflation outlook has been transformed by steep falls in oil and gas prices and a softening in core price pressures and we think there’s a good chance that inflation will be back at the 2% target in April. The case for loosening monetary policy looks strong, but will the MPC agree? In this webinar we look at how the inflation and monetary policy outlooks will evolve in 2024.

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Webinar
Global CRE key themes for 2024 – A year of transition

with Mark Unsworth and Nicholas Wilson | Online | January 30, 2024

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2. Commercial real estate (CRE) values are likely to be slow to recover but opportunities will start to emerge. In this real estate webinar we discuss the outlook and take you through our key themes for the year ahead.

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Webinar
L’anno che verrà: prospettive economiche per il 2024

with Nicola Nobile and Paolo Grignani | Online | January 23, 2024

Quali prospettive per l’economia globale ed europea in questo nuovo anno? La disinflazione proseguirà innescando rapidamente un allentamento monetario, o la solidità dei mercati del lavoro continuerà a mettere pressioni sui salari spingendo le banche centrali a mantenere i tassi elevati? Il deterioramento delle dinamiche di crescita in corso anticipa una recessione più marcata o si tratta solamente di un soft landing?

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Webinar
Latin America Key Themes 2024 – Slower growth, but it’s not all bad news

with Joan Domene and Tim Hunter | Online | December 8, 2023

In this webinar, we present our key themes for Latin America in 2024. Firstly, while annual growth will be slower than in 2023 and even slower than consensus, quarterly data will reveal a more nuanced picture. Secondly, inflation will largely continue to cool faster than markets expect, but there are risks on the horizon. Thirdly, a faster decline of inflation will allow central banks to cut faster than markets expect. And lastly, most countries will slow fiscal consolidation efforts against the backdrop of manageable debt in the near term, but soaring borrowing costs create risks.

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Webinar
US Key Themes for 2024

with Innes McFee and Michael Pearce | Online | December 4, 2023

Our final US webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. We expect a material slowdown in the US economy in the next couple of quarters to give way to a modest acceleration in GDP growth in H2. Inflation will continue to fall but at a much more gradual pace than in 2023 driven by a gradual loosening of labor market conditions, prompting the Fed to start easing policy towards the end of the year. Beyond these headlines three themes will be key to shaping the economy in 2024: fiscal policy as a key driver of the outlook; credit and political uncertainty; and the economy will remain highly desynchronized.

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Webinar
Global: Key themes 2024 – Few opportunities in a gloomy landscape

with Ben May and Kiki Sondh | Online | December 1, 2023

Global GDP growth and inflation will slow in 2024 and central banks will begin to pivot in H2 – at least that seems to be the broad agreement among markets, policymakers, and forecasters. For the most part, we concur and have identified three key themes that we think will be key to the precise path that economies and financial markets take next year: Risks to the consensus growth view are skewed to the downside. Inflation trends will diverge more. Despite the gloom, some bright spots will emerge In this webinar we explore these three key themes in more detail

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Webinar
UK Key Themes for 2024

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | November 29, 2023

Our final UK webinar of the year looks at what we can expect to see in 2024. Though the inflation shock is fading, consumers will remain under pressure as the impact of tighter monetary policy continues to emerge. Companies will also feel the pinch, with high debt servicing costs the latest in a series of problems they’ve had to deal with. But it’s not all bad news. The labour market appears to be headed for a relatively soft landing. And with a general election fast approaching, we’ll discuss whether the fiscal policy landscape is likely to change.

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Webinar
Perspectivas para España y Europa: los consumidores serán clave

with Angel Talavera and Debora Bourdon | Online | November 20, 2023

Con la economía de la zona euro al borde de la recesión, las perspectivas a corto plazo siguen siendo negativas. Para 2024 esperamos una cierta recuperación en Europa de la mano de unos consumidores que verán una mejora en su renta disponible debido a la caída de la inflación. Aunque los riesgos en el sector energético han disminuido en gran medida, las tensiones geopolíticas y el impacto de las subidas de tipos seguirán presentando riesgos para el crecimiento. En España, esperamos un crecimiento algo más flojo que este año a medida que los vientos de cola en la recuperación del sector servicios se agotan, pero seguiremos creciendo por encima de la media de la zona euro.

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Webinar
Monetary policy puzzles

with Arup Raha | Online | November 15, 2023

There is significant uncertainty as Asian economies approach the new year. There are two wars being fought, China faces structural headwinds, and we are not fully sure of the damage to the balance sheets of firms and households from Covid. Plus, higher oil prices, a stronger US dollar, and high US bond yields are restricting what policymakers in Asia can do. We try and wade through all this and arrive at the most likely outlook for Asian economies.

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Webinar
US Macro Outlook: Growth set to falter?

with Michael Pearce and Nancy Vanden Houten | Online | October 31, 2023

The economy has remained resilient through the end of the third quarter, but we expect a combination of high interest rates, tighter lending conditions and more restrictive fiscal policy will push the economy into a sharp slowdown over the coming quarters. A prolonged period of below-trend growth will help to lower inflation back closer to the Fed’s 2% target. But with the Fed approaching its inflation target from above, officials are likely to take an extremely cautious approach to lowering interest rates next year and beyond.

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Webinar
Nordic outlook: Tighter monetary policy will weigh on activity

with Daniel Kral, Rory Fennessy, Lawrence Harper-Scott and Nico Palesch | Online | October 20, 2023

The Nordic economies face a difficult near-term outlook as weak demand and tight financial conditions weigh on activity. Although headline inflation is on its way down, core inflation is proving more stubborn with central banks sticking to a hawkish stance. In this webinar, we will present our macro, cities, and industry outlook and also deep-dive into the extraordinary rise of Denmark’s pharmaceutical industry and the persistent weakness of Sweden’s krona.

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Webinar
Hausse des taux et croissance, arrive-t-on au point de rupture?

with Pierre Delage and Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani | Online | September 29, 2023

Tandis que la vague inflationniste reflue progressivement, le resserrement monétaire commence à peser sur la croissance, les dernières données indiquant un net ralentissement. Jusqu’à quand la reprise des services pourra-t-elle soutenir la croissance face à une industrie atone? L'Europe manque de relai entre une croissance aux États-Unis freinée par la Fed, et le ralentissement structurel chinois accentué pour la chute immobilière, peut-elle résister? Podczas tego webinaru przedstawimy prognozy Oxford Economics dotyczące gospodarki światowej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem krajów strefy euro. Na koniec przyjrzymy się wpływowi otoczenia zewnętrznego jak również krajowego "policy mix" na krótkoterminowe perspektywy dla gospodarki Polski.

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Webinar
US Construction Outlook- Cost Increases & Labour Shortages

with Adrian Hart and Nicholas Fearnley | Online | September 26, 2023

2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions?2023 has been a challenging time for the US construction market as input cost inflation and labour shortages weighed on activity levels. Despite the near-term challenges, the outlook remains positive. In this webinar Dr Nicholas Fearnley, Matthew Mercer, and Adrian Hart will discuss the outlook and key risks for construction activity in the US, and answer the following questions? • How does the outlook vary across states and metros? • When will residential construction activity rebound? • What do construction industry capacity constraints mean for the delivery of the IIJA? • What are the risks and implications of higher interest rates and construction costs? • What is our outlook for construction costs?

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Webinar
Global soft patch to push central banks towards policy pivot

with Ben May | Online | September 22, 2023

Economic resilience has been the key theme for the first half of 2023, but we have repeatedly argued that this unexpected strength mainly reflects spending borrowed from the future. Recently, it has become increasingly clear that the transition to weaker growth has begun. We expect a combination of a steady easing in headline and core inflation over the coming months and recessions or lacklustre growth to prompt the Fed and the European Central Bank to start cutting rates in April or May next year. The subsequent speed of policy loosening will be slow, in line with past cycles where cuts begun whilst core inflation was above target.

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Webinar
W oczekiwaniu na odbicie gospodarcze: Świat, Europa, Polska

with Mateusz Urban | Online | September 20, 2023

Globalna aktywność gospodarcza pozostaje pod presją podwyższonej inflacji i, przede wszystkim, znacznego zacieśnienia polityki monetarnej utrzymującego znaczną część gospodarek rozwiniętych na granicy stagnacji. Podczas tego webinaru przedstawimy prognozy Oxford Economics dotyczące gospodarki światowej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem krajów strefy euro. Na koniec przyjrzymy się wpływowi otoczenia zewnętrznego jak również krajowego "policy mix" na krótkoterminowe perspektywy dla gospodarki Polski.

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Webinar
Industrial outlook remains gloomy for now

with Nico Palesch and Sean Metcalfe | Online | September 14, 2023

High-frequency indicators show that economic activity is weakening through the second half of 2023, and that industry is performing worse than the broader economy. The impact of past policy tightening and the reduced availability of credit is dampening activity and contributing to a deteriorating near-term outlook for investment spending, which is disproportionately impacting manufacturing and other investment-facing sectors of the economy. While supply chains have normalised to a large degree, which is contributing to easing inflation and recovering production in backlog-affected sectors, headwinds to industrial activity are shifting partly from the supply to the demand side. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect a relatively shallow downturn in industrial activity as opposed to a total collapse. In this webinar, we will provide a comprehensive update of the global industrial outlook and account for the divergent fortunes across the different sectors that make up the economy.

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Webinar
Are African countries’ fiscal efforts strong enough to restore debt sustainability?

with Irmgard Erasmus and Pieter Scribante | Online | August 29, 2023

May’s downside surprise for inflation caused markets to rein in their expectations for the future path for Bank Rate. But we’re not out of the woods yet, with our recent research highlighting why the second round effects of higher energy prices are likely to prove more persistent than the initial direct and indirect impact. In this webinar we react to the August MPC meeting and assess the outlook for inflation and interest rates.

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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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