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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – December 2022

with Tony Stillo and Cassidy Rheaume | Online | December 21, 2022

Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Associate Economist, Cassidy Rheaume discuss the unique factors that will shape Canada’s looming recession. Stronger-than-expected headline GDP growth in Q3 masks underlying weakness and we still believe that the economy is in the early stages of recession. No two recessions are alike. Unique pandemic and geopolitical factors will shape Canada's upcoming economic downturn.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済：軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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Webinar
UK 2023 Themes: Recession ahead but policy pivot unlikely

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | December 20, 2022

We expect the UK economy to be in recession for most of 2023, with activity dragged down by falling real household income and tight policy settings. Given the underlying conditions that drove tight policy settings have not gone away, it looks unlikely that policymakers will pivot towards providing more support unless the downturn is much deeper than we anticipate.

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Webinar
Key Global Trends for 2023

with Ben May | Online | December 15, 2022

We expect vast swathes of the advanced economies to fall into recession in 2023 and for global growth to be weaker than the consensus expectation. Beyond this, we think that three broad themes which will dominate next year from an economic and financial market perspective: 1. Supply shocks will ease but won't fade completely. 2. Inflation will fall sharply but a fast central bank pivot is less likely. 3. Recessions will be mild but subsequent recoveries disappointing.

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Webinar
Will Travel Prevail through Economic Weakness in 2023?

with Dave Goodger and Adam Sacks | Online | December 12, 2022

Travel rebounded in 2022, fuelled by pent-up demand and excess savings. However, travel volumes remain below pre-pandemic peaks and household spending power is coming under immense pressure from rising costs. In this session we will explore the critical themes of our 2023 travel outlook, including the likelihood of a global economic recession and why travellers may be uniquely positioned to prevail through it.

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Webinar
Strategy Themes and Trade Ideas for 2023

with Javier Corominas, Daniel Grosvenor and Regis Chatellier | Online | December 7, 2022

2022 has proved to be an eye-watering year, laden with geo-political tensions, a global equity bear market, the fastest pace of policy tightening for a generation and with question marks raised over traditional asset allocation approaches, especially 60/40. We expect 2023 to bring challenges and increased opportunities for investors as recession sets in and economic performance varies across markets, geographies and thus asset classes.

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Webinar
Africa Watchlist 2023

with Jee-A van der Linde | Online | December 6, 2022

Africa’s economic resilience will be tested in 2023 as the west and east battle it out for the fastest-growing region. What are the factors that might precipitate recessions in the continent’s largest economies, and where could the next debt restructuring take place? A flare-up in tensions may lead to conflict between the DRC and Rwanda, jeopardising economic integration within the East African Community. Zimbabwe heads to the polls next year – will we see meaningful change this time? In this webinar we will take a closer look at these key themes for Africa in 2023.

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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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Webinar
The future of the valve and actuator market

with Alexandra Hermann and Jeremy Leonard | Online | December 2, 2022

With the world economy facing a potential recession, doubts are mounting over the outlook for the industrial sector. What does this backdrop mean for valve and actuator consumption, this year, next year, and over the medium term? Which markets have the largest growth potential? Our annual Global Valve and Actuator Market Outlook, produced in partnership with the British Valve and Actuator Association, answers these questions.

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Webinar
Key themes for 2023 in Latin America

with Marcos Casarin, Felipe Camargo, Joan Domene and Debora Reyna | Online | November 28, 2022

We expect Latin American economies will be among the first to cut interest rates next year, but we also see the region falling into a shallow recession early in 2023. These, alongside the expectation that fiscal policy will feature more prominently in the debate, are amongst the key themes we believe will shape next year's economic outlook for Latin America.

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Webinar
Les économies européenne et mondiale face à l’hiver et aux banques centrales

with Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani and Pierre Delage | Online | November 22, 2022

L’économie française et européenne font face à la double menace des pressions inflationnistes et de la crise énergétique, avec des perspectives globales négatives aux US et en Chine. Le scénario global d’une croissance prise entre stagflation et resserrement monétaire font crainde une récession dans les pays avancés.

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Webinar
US macro, industries, and metro outlook – Economy will soon enter a recession

with Oren Klachkin and Barbara Byrne Denham | Online | November 18, 2022

The Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and the recent tightening in financial market conditions will drive the US economy into a mild recession in 2023. Higher borrowing costs will weigh on corporate profits, hiring, and business investment. The consumer won’t be immune to an increase in the unemployment rate and reduction in excess savings. The recession will be a garden variety downturn because there are no glaring imbalances. Tune in to learn where the US economy is headed in 2023 – with a focus on the path forward for US metros.

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Webinar
Africa in 2023

with Callee Davis and Jacques Nel | Online | November 15, 2022

The global economy is on the cusp of a recession. A number of African economies have historically been able to shrug off an unfavourable external backdrop, but a marked tightening in global financial conditions will make this time more challenging. In this session we will give our view on how 2023 will unfold on the continent and what we should, and shouldn’t, expect.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession looks unavoidable

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | October 27, 2022

Canada's economy has already weakened and a moderate recession is now inevitable. Overly aggressive monetary policy tightening, a deepening housing correction, falling real incomes, and looming recessions in the US, UK, and Eurozone will push Canada into a downturn this fall.

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Webinar
European travel recovery despite looming recession – ETC 2022 Q3 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Jennifer Iduh and Chloe Parkins | Online | October 20, 2022

Strong rebound in travel continued during 2022 summer months across European destinations, despite economic slowdown. The region now sits on the brink of recession and we will explore how much this is expected to affect travel prospects for the remainder of the year, and into 2023, as well as the impact of currency shifts and potential for recovery in demand from some long-haul markets which are likely to re-open.

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Webinar
Cities under strain: European, Asia Pacific and North American cities face multiple challenges

with Richard Holt and Lawrence Harper-Scott | Online | October 17, 2022

In our latest quarterly round-up on world city prospects, Richard Holt our Director of Global Cities Research will set out our views on the outlook for 2023 and beyond, across many Asia Pacific, US and Canadian majors. And Lawrence Harper-Scott from our European cities forecasting team will put those cities under scrutiny. With Covid-19 still a rumbling issue in China, the Ukraine war having powerful impacts in Europe, and recession anxieties in the US and Canada, now is the time to think hard about 2023 prospects.

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Podcast
Canada Economic Podcast – August 2022

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | September 30, 2022

Tony Stillo, Director of Economics for Canada, and fellow Economist, Michael Davenport discuss the prospect of a recession in Canada and what a recession could look like in today’s unique post-pandemic landscape. Economic momentum is already decelerating, and the Canadian economy is likely in store for a period of very weak growth in the second half of 2022 and 2023. We still view a soft landing as the most likely outcome for the economy, but the landing strip is very narrow! We're increasingly concerned that overly aggressive monetary policy tightening with highly indebted household and a deepening housing correction could push the economy into recession. A recession isn’t a done deal just yet, but we think chances of a downturn are elevated at 40%.

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Webinar
Eurozone: Headed for recession this winter

with Angel Talavera and Nicola Nobile | Online | September 22, 2022

The eurozone economy is likely to fall into recession this winter, as the region continues to grapple with surging prices and the looming threat of energy rationing. With inflation showing no signs of easing, we expect the ECB to continue to hike rates aggressively despite the quickly deteriorating economic conditions. Simultaneously, the upcoming Italian elections add an additional element of uncertainty to the European outlook, we will explore this in more detail in the second part of the session.

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