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Webinar
Latin America’s exposure to an asset crash scenario

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | March 30, 2023

The failure of regional banks in the US did not change our baseline forecast for asset prices, central bank policy or the real economy in Latin America. But it was a reminder that the Fed could cause accidents along the way in its fight against inflation and Latin America could become a casualty in the process. Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene will provide an update on the outlook and risks for the region with a focus on its two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico.

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Webinar
Financial stresses add to the downside risks to world growth

with Ben May and Innes McFee | Online | March 20, 2023

We’ve recently revised up our world GDP growth forecast for 2023 modestly and continue to see only modest recessions at worst in key advanced economies. The recent failures of Silvergate Capital and Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) have nonetheless highlighted the risk of a more substantive and disorderly further tightening in financial conditions which could in turn have adverse spillovers to the real economy. In this webinar, we set out why we have kept our baseline forecasts unchanged in response to these recent events and set out what we would need to see from here to trigger a substantive downward revision to our baseline forecasts.

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Webinar
China: After the Two Sessions

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | March 10, 2023

The annual “Two Sessions” in China this year will see a change in personnel at the top levels, potential changes to party restructuring and major financial regulators, as well as the unveiling of key economic targets for 2023, amid the fierce confluence of domestic and external headwinds. Longer-term structural challenges, including China’s growth model transition and ageing demographics, will also dominate policy discussions. This webinar will focus on the implications of these policy announcements on our China macro outlook, and discuss the risks to our forecasts.

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Webinar
Our most (and least) preferred macro stories in Latin America this year

with Gabriel Sterne and Marcos Casarin | Online | February 22, 2023

With 2023 set to be a good year for EM bondholders, we focus this webinar on the region where we think bond market can offer the best risk/reward in EM this year: Latin America. LatAm economies are ahead of the tightening curve and should debut the season of rate cuts in EM, but the region is not short of idiosyncratic risks, meaning investors will need to remain selective. Please join our Head of Global EM Gabriel Sterne and our Chief LatAm Economist Marcos Casarin as they go through the most (and least) promising macro stories in LatAm in 2023.

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Webinar
The continued risk of monetary overkill

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 21, 2023

We assess the risk of central bank over-tightening in an uncertain environment. We consider whether the level of monetary restriction could become excessive relative to what is needed to return inflation to target and the risk that the speed of tightening could cause financial market instability, looking at current key indicators and historical evidence across a range of advanced economies.

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Webinar
Commodities 2023 key themes: Political uncertainty to keep markets volatile

with Kiran Ahmed, Stephen Hare, Toby Whittington and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | December 16, 2022

Uncertainties around both supply and demand, driven to a large extent by politics rather than economics have been a key feature of commodity markets this year – sanctions on Russia, Moscow’s response and China’s Covid policy, to name but a few. At the same time, central banks are ratcheting up interest rates, depressing demand. We explore the outlook for commodity prices amid this high level of uncertainty and discuss the risks to our baseline.

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Webinar
EMs’ year ahead – time to pick up a few gems as the steam roller passes by

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | December 8, 2022

In our annual outlook for global emerging markets, we will highlight those EMs most vulnerable to weak global demand and a strong dollar in 2023. Better news is that tail risks associated with very high import prices will fade; and we will show which economies and markets stand to benefit most from falling inflation, ahead-of-the-curve policies and any resumption in capital inflows. Finally, we will assess implications of global policy impotence to deal with this wave of sovereign distress.

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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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Webinar
Asian Economic Outlook for 2023

with Arup Raha and Gabriel Sterne | Online | November 16, 2022

Asian economies are no strangers to economic shocks but this time is different. In particular, China’s growth has faltered, the Fed is raising rates, and energy prices are high. This combination is unprecedented. Moreover, there is limited counter-cyclical policy space. Arup Raha will present the Asia team’s outlook on the upcoming year – the likely outcomes and main risks.

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Webinar
Post-election scenarios for Brazil

with Marcos Casarin and Felipe Camargo | Online | October 28, 2022

Brazil's presidential election will be decided on October 29 in a runoff between left-wing former president Lula da Silva (PT) and far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro (PL). We think that a Lula victory could be a best-case scenario for investors, as the charismatic, progressive leader will have to reach consensuses with a conservative congress to pass legislation, reducing the risks of radical policy changes.

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Webinar
Untangling the African political economy patchwork

with Pieter Scribante and Jacques Nel | Online | October 25, 2022

The African policy environment is volatile and difficult to predict due to complex interconnections between politics and economics. By using political economy risk tools, we can better understand where we could see the most severe policy volatility and what direction this policy might take. In this session we explore the findings of our updated political economy framework. These findings include in what way the nature of challenges to government supremacy matter – challenges by civil society (South Africa, Botswana, and Mauritius) have qualitatively different outcomes to challenges by the military or armed groups (Mozambique, Libya, and Ethiopia) – and how elections feed into policy decisions.

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Webinar
EMs vulnerable but far from the epicentre of the global storm

with Lucila Bonilla and Maya Senussi | Online | October 21, 2022

Growth in EMs faces intensifying headwinds but to a lesser extent than in advanced economies. Although the medium-term outlook looks weaker compared to last month, we expect pace of growth to slow only slightly in 2023 – backstopped by Asia’s protracted recovery. Several other factors will help mitigate risks: monetary policies having been ahead of the curve, overall resilience in the terms of trade, and a less sharp depreciation against the US dollar compared to other advanced economies.

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Webinar
Pre-emptive debt restructuring: a viable scenario for fragile African sovereigns?

with Irmgard Erasmus | Online | September 30, 2022

The expiry of Covid-19-related support coupled with a surge in the goods import bill has exacerbated pressure on external trade positions for various African sovereigns. We see headwinds intensifying from 2023 onwards in the form of a deepening drought in East Africa, populist-leaning policies aimed at appeasing voter frustrations, large redemptions of external public debt facilities, and moral hazard. The risk profile is fragmented but a common thread can be found across Africa: sovereigns face an uphill battle in meeting the projected external funding requirements. With the risks of disorderly default on the rise and informed by the Zambian blueprint, we investigate the case for pre-emptive debt restructuring for fiscally fragile nations including Egypt, Ghana, and Kenya.

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Webinar
Near-term real estate performance and long term risk

with Christopher Babatope and Mark Unsworth | Online | July 15, 2022

In an environment where cyclical risks are rising, structural risks continue to remain important. Rising geopolitical uncertainty, weakening growth prospects and quickening rate hikes have led us to revise our near-term real estate outlook, while the long-term risks stemming from the climate transition are also ever-present. We examine near-term real estate performance and long-term obsolescence risk in this webinar.

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Webinar
Understanding the climate risks faced by Africa

with Felicity Hannon and Francesca Jones | Online | July 11, 2022

In this webinar, Francesca Jones will present Oxford Economics’ latest climate scenarios. The expanded country coverage offers an enhanced understanding of the climate risks faced by Africa. Our findings show that Africa is responsible for a small proportion of global emissions, yet its economy is highly vulnerable to the negative consequences of climate change. A transition to a low carbon economy could support productivity growth through lower global temperatures and create significant investment opportunities due to the huge solar and geothermal potential in the region.

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Webinar
Some banks and sovereigns are getting too close, elevating risks

with Gabriel Sterne and Evghenia Sleptsova | Online | July 6, 2022

Overall banking sector risks throughout the global economy have fallen back post-Covid. But sovereign risk has gone in the opposite direction and one of our greatest concerns is the prospect of distressed sovereigns dragging down their domestic banking systems. Our risk tools reveal that just a few advanced economies are affected; the greater concern is in EMs. We find several EM banking systems are already in a discomfort zone. We reveal where declines in the value of sovereign assets could erode and in some cases wipe out capital buffers.

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