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Webinar
Industrial outlook remains gloomy for now

with Nico Palesch and Sean Metcalfe | Online | September 14, 2023

High-frequency indicators show that economic activity is weakening through the second half of 2023, and that industry is performing worse than the broader economy. The impact of past policy tightening and the reduced availability of credit is dampening activity and contributing to a deteriorating near-term outlook for investment spending, which is disproportionately impacting manufacturing and other investment-facing sectors of the economy. While supply chains have normalised to a large degree, which is contributing to easing inflation and recovering production in backlog-affected sectors, headwinds to industrial activity are shifting partly from the supply to the demand side. Nonetheless, there are good reasons to expect a relatively shallow downturn in industrial activity as opposed to a total collapse. In this webinar, we will provide a comprehensive update of the global industrial outlook and account for the divergent fortunes across the different sectors that make up the economy.

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Webinar
Global scenarios – Taiwan tensions

with Jamie Thompson, Chris Parfit and Jennifer Colosi | Online | September 11, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service. We explore the risks posed by increased China-Taiwan tensions, as well as the potential for a stronger consumer-led recovery.

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Webinar
Why travel will recover this year in the face of economic headwinds

with Dave Goodger and Helen McDermott | Online | June 23, 2023

2023 will mark a return to pre-pandemic levels of global travel activity, despite a slowing global economy. The reasons for this recovery, and expectations for ongoing growth will be explored within this webinar. The travel sector in advanced economies is proving resilient to the current economic headwinds as households are prioritising a return to leisure travel activities, despite the squeeze on incomes. Corporate travel is also returning in sharp contrast to predictions of the demise of this segment. Emerging markets are also resuming an important role in shaping demand now the majority of travel restrictions are lifted and are growing in importance.

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Webinar
European Travel Trends & Outlook ahead of peak summer season

with Dave Goodger and Jennifer Iduh | Online | June 22, 2023

Both domestic and international travel rebounded in 2022 and has started 2023 strongly to return to very close to pre-pandemic levels of activity, on average. In this webinar we will explore the trends emerging for the peak summer months to understand whether full recovery is likely and which destinations and source markets will be driving growth. This will include a focus on air passenger data and trends, with a contribution from IATA as well as from ETC and the Tourism Economics team.

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Webinar
What next for commodity prices? Discussing the outlook amid slowing global growth

with Stephen Hare, Kiran Ahmed, Toby Whittington and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | June 22, 2023

Initial optimism about demand, following China’s abrupt reopening has now given way to concerns amid tightening monetary policy in advanced economies and a lacklustre Chinese industrial recovery. We outline the implications for commodity markets and prices as well as risks to our baseline view.

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Webinar
Why air travel is set to soar ahead again in 2023

with Dave Goodger | Online | June 20, 2023

Air passenger demand data for early-2023 indicates further significant improvements over 2022’s partial demand recovery. Despite a subdued economic backdrop, forward looking data across May to September show little sign of this recovery taking any reprieve and activity is set to surpass 2019 levels towards the end of the year. The re-opening of the Chinese international travel market is providing some additional reasons for optimism. Tourism Economics and IATA will share latest data, trends and the outlook in this webinar.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Credit crunch

with Chris Parfitt, Jamie Thompson and Alex Mackle | Online | June 15, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service. We explore the risks posed by recent banking system strains, as well as the possibility of a more robust consumer-led recovery.

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Webinar
Global industrial outlook for 2023 remains weak

with Jeremy Leonard and Max Anderson | Online | June 14, 2023

We will present an overview and the highlights of our latest quarterly industry forecast update. Key topics include the positive developments in Europe with respect to energy prices and supply, frontloaded recovery in China after the end of zero-Covid policy and how the evolution of inflation and interest rates will keep industrial prospects weak in the near term.

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Webinar
Why the cruise sector will rebound faster than after the Great Recession

with Dave Goodger and Christian Savelli | Online | June 8, 2023

The cruise sector was hit following the Great Recession by continued increases in capacity while travel demand slowed sharply - deep discounting was required at that time to spur demand. We are now seeing an apparent parallel trend as new cruise capacity spiked in 2022, despite travel remaining well below pre-pandemic norms in most destinations. In this webinar we describe the amount of additional new capacity that will be launched in coming years as well as demand expectations and why we believe sector recovery and cruise pricing will differ in this current cycle.

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Webinar
Asia’s tug of war as China grows and the US slows

with Arup Raha | Online | June 7, 2023

While the pandemic is effectively over, its aftershocks remain for Asian economies. Balance sheets of households, firms and government will need rebuilding and bottlenecks will need to be eased. Plus, policy space is limited and the extent of the structural dislocations are not fully known. Unlike in the aftermath of the Asian Financial Crisis or the Global Financial Crisis, Asia’s growth recovery is likely to be more difficult. Plus, a spotlight on China. There is a post-Covid growth bounce but is it sustainable? We look at tussle between the cyclical pick up and the structural drag on the economy. What does the medium-term future look like?

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Webinar
Greater China: Exploring the plausible ‘What Ifs’ to our 2023 outlook

with Louise Loo and Lloyd Chan | Online | May 9, 2023

Market forecasts around China’s growth this year vary considerably, reflecting differences in assumptions around policy risk, the outlook for the property sector, and the size and longevity of the reopening consumption boost. We provide our own take on China’s growth, inflation, and currency in 2023, discuss and size various risks to our own forecasts. We will also be presenting our outlook on Hong Kong, following the Q1 GDP data.

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Webinar
Tech spending by US businesses will decline in the second half of 2023 but recover to over $2 trillion by 2025

with Mark Killion and Victoria Tribone | Online | May 4, 2023

New headwinds facing US business spending will cause a decline in their purchase of technology products during second half of 2023, before a modest 3% recovery in 2024 accelerates to 5.6% gain in 2025. Which industries will lead the spending on technology, and what products will be the focus of their purchases? Mark Killion, CFA, Director of US Industries, and Victoria Tribone, Economist in the Oxford Economics Industry Service, will present the latest forecast for US purchases of enterprise technology products, including possible impacts from several alternate scenarios.

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Webinar
European Travel Trends & Outlook – focus on the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war

with Dave Goodger, Jennifer Iduh and Chloe Parkins | Online | April 20, 2023

It has now been over a year since Russia invaded Ukraine and war continues with no clear or immediate end in sight - impacting on a wide range of economic activities and countries. In this session we will explore the impact of the ongoing conflict, and related policies on travel and especially for European destinations and implications for recovery. Other travel trends and performance will also be discussed.

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Webinar
Commodities demand: China to the rescue?

with Toby Whittington, Diego Cacciapuoti, Kiran Ahmed and Stephen Hare | Online | March 23, 2023

China’s abrupt reopening caused commodity prices to jump earlier this year but questions remain about the strength of its recovery. We examine the extent to which China will support commodity demand this year whilst also discussing the supply-side outlook in commodity markets and implications for prices.

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Webinar
Can US travel defy economic gravity?

with Adam Sacks | Online | February 8, 2023

Both leisure and business travel have rebounded with impressive strength over the past year. However, recession tremors and persistent inflation loom large and threaten the continued recovery of travel. Adam Sacks will share Tourism Economics’ latest views on the economy, the mindset of travelers, and expectations for the evolution of travel.

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Webinar
European travel – the rising importance of long-haul travel – ETC Q4 trends and prospects

with Dave Goodger, Jennifer Iduh and Chloe Parkins | Online | January 25, 2023

The strong travel rebound in 2022 is expected to continue into 2023, albeit at a slower pace and with a shift in the importance of source markets. Advanced economy recession will dent recovery, but pent-up demand remains evident for major markets and there remains some continuing normalisation of travel patterns. Growth in transatlantic travel has been a recent area of success for European destinations, while we can now look forward to returning visitors from Asia Pacific with some more clarity.

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Webinar
Middle East 2023 outlook: The shine comes off GCC recovery

with Maya Senussi and Scott Livermore | Online | January 24, 2023

The 2023 outlook for the GCC region will not compare to last year's spectacular expansion. OPEC+ policy has weakened prospects for the oil sector, while rise in domestic financing costs will contribute to the slowdown in non-oil recovery. That said, growth will remain firmly positive, underpinned by diversification efforts, in contrast to many advanced and emerging markets.

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Webinar
Key Global Trends for 2023

with Ben May | Online | December 15, 2022

We expect vast swathes of the advanced economies to fall into recession in 2023 and for global growth to be weaker than the consensus expectation. Beyond this, we think that three broad themes which will dominate next year from an economic and financial market perspective: 1. Supply shocks will ease but won't fade completely. 2. Inflation will fall sharply but a fast central bank pivot is less likely. 3. Recessions will be mild but subsequent recoveries disappointing.

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Webinar
Air travel recovery – the sky’s the limit

with Dave Goodger, Stephen Rooney and Andrew Matters | Online | December 7, 2022

Air travel has continued to grow throughout 2022 as recovery from the pandemic has continued, including improvement in both domestic and international air travel. Growth to date has been largely fuelled by pent-up demand and accumulated savings but fundamental drivers of demand and affordability will become more important. In this session we will explore the growth outlook, opportunities and potential headwinds.

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Webinar
Eurozone 2023 themes: A race against time before next winter

with Angel Talavera and Daniel Kral | Online | December 6, 2022

The energy crisis will continue to dominate the European macro outlook next year. Following a recession at the start of the year, we expect a gradual recovery once the energy emergency eases, as a decline in inflation should allow household real incomes recover. But lower gas supplies will be a key risk to the outlook if Europe fails to secure enough energy or adjust its demand ahead of next winter.

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