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Webinar
Identifying attractive EM local bonds

with Lucila Bonilla and Tomas Dvorak | Online | November 14, 2023

Disinflation momentum, weakening economic activity, high real rates, and attractive term premia explain our positive view on EM local currency debt. Weak growth raises the risk of inflation undershoots and faster monetary policy normalisation in Central and Eastern Europe. Latin America’s disinflation progressed smoothly, but growth outperformed expectations this year, prompting shallower normalisation paths. Markets price in too few rate cuts in some of these economies. We continue to tilt our local currency debt portfolio into these regions and will lay the case for our preferred stories.

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Webinar
The policy cycle is peaking but is European CRE out of the woods?

with Mark Unsworth and Tomas Dvorak | Online | September 21, 2023

As we approach the peak of the monetary tightening cycle we assess what this means for UK and eurozone economic growth, inflation and interest rates. We explore the latest developments in the European commercial real estate market and assess if values have reached a turning point.

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Webinar
W oczekiwaniu na odbicie gospodarcze: Świat, Europa, Polska

with Mateusz Urban | Online | September 20, 2023

Globalna aktywność gospodarcza pozostaje pod presją podwyższonej inflacji i, przede wszystkim, znacznego zacieśnienia polityki monetarnej utrzymującego znaczną część gospodarek rozwiniętych na granicy stagnacji. Podczas tego webinaru przedstawimy prognozy Oxford Economics dotyczące gospodarki światowej, ze szczególnym uwzględnieniem krajów strefy euro. Na koniec przyjrzymy się wpływowi otoczenia zewnętrznego jak również krajowego "policy mix" na krótkoterminowe perspektywy dla gospodarki Polski.

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Webinar
LatAm growth slows as Argentina eyes a silver bullet

with Joan Domene and Felipe Camargo | Online | September 8, 2023

Growth dynamics across the region’s largest economies are diverging. Mexico’s delayed recovery will support its overperformance, while most countries are already feeling the impact of policy tightening. Resilient consumption in some countries and new shocks to commodity prices could compromise the speed of monetary policy normalization, which has already begun. Argentina’s surprise presidential front-runner opened the door to a possible dollarization that revived an old ghost. We will discuss the potential path to its implementation and the degree of success it could achieve.

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Webinar
EM policy pivots ahead of AEs as investment takes a hit

with Gabriel Sterne and Lucila Bonilla | Online | August 24, 2023

Real activity growth in emerging markets (EMs) ex-China has been more resilient than we expected, despite very tight monetary policy. So far this year, we’ve increased our GDP forecasts in 15 large EMs. However, our Q2 nowcasts are indicating slowing momentum, particularly though investment weakness. We pencil a greater drag from past policy tightening on activity in 2024 that will contribute to easing core inflation momentum. This will allow most EMs to cut ahead of the Fed, with risks tilted to a faster normalisation.

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Webinar
What next for commodity prices? Discussing the outlook amid slowing global growth

with Stephen Hare, Kiran Ahmed, Toby Whittington and Diego Cacciapuoti | Online | June 22, 2023

Initial optimism about demand, following China’s abrupt reopening has now given way to concerns amid tightening monetary policy in advanced economies and a lacklustre Chinese industrial recovery. We outline the implications for commodity markets and prices as well as risks to our baseline view.

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Webinar
Stagflation et hausse des taux, où sont les bonnes nouvelles?

with Pierre Delage and Daniela Ordonez | Online | June 20, 2023

Alors que la France et la zone euro semblent enlisées dans la stagflation, les Etats-Unis montrent des signes étonnants de résilience face à la Fed, au moins pour le moment. La Chine déconfinée, elle, se montre en apparence contra-cyclique avec de la croissance et une tendance déflationniste. Dans ce contexte, qu’attendre au S2 2023 en termes d’inflation, de politique monétaire et de croissance?

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Webinar
Latin America: is the worst behind us?

with Marcos Casarin and Joan Domene | Online | June 13, 2023

Strong post-pandemic recovery and high commodity prices provided a surprising momentum to Latin America that extended well into 2023. However, economic cycles are decoupling. Economies like Chile and Argentina are already feeling the hangover from prior overheating, while the region’s two largest economies, Brazil and Mexico, could still feel the pain of a global recession later this year or in 2024. In this webinar, we dissect growth divergence in the region and what it means for the outlook for inflation and monetary policy.

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Webinar
UK Macro – Have we reached the end of the rate hiking cycle?

with Andrew Goodwin and Edward Allenby | Online | May 15, 2023

In February, when Bank Rate was increased to 4%, the MPC sent a clear message that it felt its job was almost done. But since then activity has been firmer than expected and fiscal policy has been loosened, while data on wages and inflation have surprised on the upside, leading markets to expect that Bank Rate will move close to 5% by year-end. In this webinar we will provide an update on the outlook for monetary policy, looking back on the May MPC meeting and presenting some of our recent work on labour market tightness and the outlook for wage growth.

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Webinar
The worst is likely over, but growth will be subdued

with Daniel Kral, Rory Fennessy, Lawrence Harper-Scott and Nico Palesch | Online | April 28, 2023

The Nordic economies are particularly exposed to high inflation and rising rates, given the high indebtedness of their private sectors and prevalence of variable rate loans. Activity has so far surprised on the upside in early 2023, but tight financial conditions and depressed real incomes will weigh on growth later this year and into 2024. In this webinar, we will address the main drivers of the near-term outlook, namely the impact of inflation and monetary policy tightening on the real economy and the banking sectors, as well as our view on Nordic industry, commercial real estate and cities performance.

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Webinar
Global scenarios: Policy peril

with Jamie Thompson and Manuela Kiehl | Online | March 13, 2023

This webinar examines the key insights from our latest Global Scenarios Service, including the sensitivity of monetary policy and economic activity to near-term price developments. We highlight in particular the potential implications for the global economy of a stronger Chinese recovery and higher-than-expected inflation.

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Webinar
The continued risk of monetary overkill

with Ben May and Adam Slater | Online | February 21, 2023

We assess the risk of central bank over-tightening in an uncertain environment. We consider whether the level of monetary restriction could become excessive relative to what is needed to return inflation to target and the risk that the speed of tightening could cause financial market instability, looking at current key indicators and historical evidence across a range of advanced economies.

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Webinar
US: 2023 Key Themes – Will the landing be hard or soft?

with Ryan Sweet and Oren Klachkin | Online | January 11, 2023

The US economy will need a lot of luck to avoid a mild recession this year because the headwinds are about to intensify. Historically, in bouts of high inflation and a weakening economy, the Fed has been slow to ease monetary policy. Therefore, we don’t anticipate the Fed cutting interest rates anytime soon and though there is a path to a soft landing, it’s narrow.

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Webinar
2023年の世界経済：軽微な景気後退と金融引締め長期化リスク

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 21, 2022

当社は主要国について浅く短い景気後退局面入りとそれに続く冴えない回復を予測しています。こうしたコンセンサス対比弱めの見通しに対する大きなリスクは、インフレは低下傾向を辿る下でも米国FEDによる引締めが市場の想定より長期化することです。世界的な住宅市場の調整やドル高長期化など様々なルートで影響が拡がります。加えて、欧州におけるガス需給の見通しや中国のゼロ・コロナ政策転換の展開などのリスクに関する分析もご紹介します。

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Webinar
Japan Key themes 2023: BoJ finally out of woods?

with Shigeto Nagai | Online | December 13, 2022

Will global inflation finally end the long-term deflationary trend in Japan? Would this enable the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to start adjusting its Yield Curve Control policy in 2023? In this webinar we will answer these questions by examining four interrelated themes. Are firms regaining pricing power? Is a price-wage spiral about to start? What is the yen forecast in 2023? Will the new BoJ governor make a difference?

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Webinar
Les économies européenne et mondiale face à l’hiver et aux banques centrales

with Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani and Pierre Delage | Online | November 22, 2022

L’économie française et européenne font face à la double menace des pressions inflationnistes et de la crise énergétique, avec des perspectives globales négatives aux US et en Chine. Le scénario global d’une croissance prise entre stagflation et resserrement monétaire font crainde une récession dans les pays avancés.

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Webinar
Canada Economic Outlook: Recession looks unavoidable

with Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport | Online | October 27, 2022

Canada's economy has already weakened and a moderate recession is now inevitable. Overly aggressive monetary policy tightening, a deepening housing correction, falling real incomes, and looming recessions in the US, UK, and Eurozone will push Canada into a downturn this fall.

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Webinar
Nordic outlook: A difficult winter ahead

with Rory Fennessy, Lawrence Harper - Scott, Alexandra Hermann and Daniel Kral | Online | October 26, 2022

After a strong first half of the year, the Nordic economies have a difficult winter ahead amid high inflation, monetary policy tightening, and softening activity. In this webinar, we will discuss the macroeconomic outlook for this winter and beyond, as well as our view on Nordic industry and cities performance.

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Webinar
EMs vulnerable but far from the epicentre of the global storm

with Lucila Bonilla and Maya Senussi | Online | October 21, 2022

Growth in EMs faces intensifying headwinds but to a lesser extent than in advanced economies. Although the medium-term outlook looks weaker compared to last month, we expect pace of growth to slow only slightly in 2023 – backstopped by Asia’s protracted recovery. Several other factors will help mitigate risks: monetary policies having been ahead of the curve, overall resilience in the terms of trade, and a less sharp depreciation against the US dollar compared to other advanced economies.

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